To solve inflation we need less demand, more supply, or both

SH
August 3 2022 - 10:00am
Since we still use it so much, crude oil prices remain correlated with inflation. Photo: Shutterstock
Since we still use it so much, crude oil prices remain correlated with inflation. Photo: Shutterstock

With inflation going the way that it is, it seems a natural desire to want one's wages to keep up with it.

However, that's only a partial and temporary solution, and only for a relatively small number of people.

I'm not saying it should not happen, but I am saying you should consider the unwanted side-effects it can cause because it can actually make the issue worse for those not earning a pre-negotiated wage, whether they're unemployed, retired or otherwise not in a position to increase their income.

This occurs because an increase in spending power among any noteworthy portion of the population can put increased pressure on prices to go up even further, which is why central banks have any control over the economy at all when they adjust interest rates to influence how much money loan repayers have left over, or how attractive it is to buy something on credit.

A bit perversely, many solutions also seem to make certain company profits bigger. Much bigger. In fact you're probably starting to hear the term super-profits more often. And some prices which may not really need to go up, have, with inflation being the key justification whether it's true or not.

Therefore it's really important to look at the factors contributing to inflation, as well as the factors which are most affected by inflation.

In the 2020s, the key word is scarcity, whether it's access to cheap energy, resources or labour.

For a significant number of goods, particularly the ones we perceive to be essential, there's a definite relationship between supply and demand which determines whether prices go up or down.

When something is in plentiful supply, there's more competition around which drives the price (or value) down. However, when there's a shortage of supply, the price (or value) goes up, either because they need to cover costs in the supply chain, or just because they can without the competition to keep them low.

For some goods that relationship can be very sensitive, and crude oil is one of those.

This was highlighted at the beginning of the pandemic when many people suddenly stopped using petroleum products for a while and the price of oil went below $0. Speculators buying and selling oil to skim a profit was a big part of the equation, and they got caught out with owning literal shiploads they could not sell, and since they had nowhere to put it, it was cheaper to pay someone to take it rather than to pay for storage costs.

With or without speculators though, for about the last 100 years the price of crude oil has been noticeably correlated with the producer price index (PPI) which measures the wholesale cost of goods, because energy and transport are noteworthy inputs to producing and distributing those goods.

Oil is very sensitive in the other direction as well, with an undersupply pushing prices way higher than they would otherwise be.

This has occurred to the point where Russia has been making more money from oil than they did before they invaded Ukraine despite sanctions reducing their output and causing them to sell to desperate countries at a discount compared to the global price. It's also why the Americans made nice with the Saudis in July 2022 despite objecting to their actions related to human rights.

The so-called developed world remains staggeringly reliant on oil to do anything we consider necessary, whether it's to grow and distribute food or go to jobs you can't do from home. So what are a few other solutions we can cover in a motoring column?

The main one is to be more efficient with your need for petroleum products.

Consider the efficiency of fuel usage for not just your movements but also the things you buy and how they come to you. Are you causing a vehicle to be used just for you, or is the journey going to serve many others to make your share of fuel use very small or even negligible as an additional stop along an existing round or route?

Also consider the necessity of your other purchases. If that thing is scarce, you buying it keeps the price up, or even adds to the reason the price should go up further.

SH

Sam Hollier

ACM Group Advertising Features & Special Publications