Front-runners emerge as season settles down after disjointed start

It's been pretty hard to get a read on this AFL season lately, none the least because it's taken until a quarter of the way through the home and away rounds for every team to have played the same number of games.

That "Opening Round" idea might have been good promotion for the AFL's northern markets, but it played havoc with the scheduling, two teams with a bye in four of the first six rounds, and another weekend, "Gather Round", which had everyone based in South Australia.

So now everyone is finally on an even keel, what actually is the state of play? Well, Geelong is very much back in town, the Cats the competition's only undefeated team. Sydney looks set to contend again, too, in another nod to 2022, while two narrowly-beaten preliminary finalists from last year, Carlton and Greater Western Sydney, are also pressing again.

Last year's grand finalists, meanwhile, have found the going decidedly tougher, Collingwood and Brisbane each losing their first two games, the Pies having recovered well since, but the Lions in considerable strife in 12th spot on the ladder at 2-4. Which brings us to a very interesting juncture.

Some of us in the football prognostication trade have for a long time sworn allegiance to what is known as the "Round 7 Rule", which, in a nutshell, says that if you're not in the top eight after seven rounds, you're more than likely not to be by the end of the home and away season.

There's been 23 completed AFL seasons since 2001. And in 21 of them, the top eight has changed by a maximum of just two teams from the end of round seven to the end of the final home and away round.

There was a period between 2002 and 2010 - nine seasons - when only once did more than one team that hadn't been nestled inside the top eight come the end of round seven end up playing finals.

Eight times there's been just one team make it from outside at that point to a finals campaign, 10 times it's been only two teams, and on a couple of occasions, none at all. And it was a two-team change again last year, when Geelong and Adelaide made way for Sydney and GWS.

Which is interesting in itself, because last year was also one when three eventual finalists - Sydney, GWS and Carlton - were occupying 13th, 14th and 15th spots on the ladder respectively as late as Round 15.

That would seem to fly in the face of the principle behind the Round 7 Rule, I hear you say. But does it really? Because after seven rounds last year, Carlton was actually looking OK in sixth spot at 4-2 and a draw. And the Swans and Giants, meanwhile, were both 3-4 and only a game outside the top eight.

Perhaps, indeed, an at-least competitive start to the season provided enough of a buffer for the stormy waters which lay ahead. It certainly helped save the Blues' season, which would really hit the skids when they lost six games in a row from Round 8 to 13.

Carlton's revival from those depths to win the next nine games straight was a remarkable turnaround, but it still would have been to little avail had the Blues not put at least a few runs on the board earlier on.

So what does this all mean in the context of the current ladder? Well, Round 7, which this year is the Anzac Round, is being played out across five days, and for some sides currently outside the top eight the stakes couldn't be much higher.

Take the combatants in that epic 2023 grand final. Collingwood's traditional Anzac Day clash with Essendon is big enough in its own right, but has some added spice this year given the Bombers have started the season promisingly at 4-2 and the Pies, who certainly seemed to come good against Port Adelaide last Saturday, still have some ground to make up.

But not as much as the Lions, mind you, whose current 2-4 record makes their Anzac Day evening clash with GWS a must-win, some sort of challenge given the form the Giants have been in this year.

You could have written your own ticket just a couple of months ago about the prospect of Brisbane and last year's wooden spooner West Coast having won the same number of games this deep into the season.

Perhaps there's still time for them. And the recoveries last year of the Blues, Giants and Swans certainly offer some hope. But no more hope than the amount to which a tried and tested rule of thumb should also be ringing the alarm bells.